The Global Stocktake: Findings and Talking Points for COP28
The Global Stocktake
The Global Stocktake (GST) was established in 2015 under the Paris Agreement as a global, multi-stage inventory process to allow governments and the international community to track and evaluate progress on climate action [1]. The first GST commenced in November 2021 at COP26 and is set to conclude its final phase during COP28, where negotiators, Ministers and Heads of State will discuss the findings of the technical assessment and identify opportunities to strengthen climate action, including financial and technical support.
The GST is conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and will serve as a five-yearly assessment of the aggregate impact of global climate mitigation, adaptation, and finance efforts. While the GST does not assess progress made by individual countries, it does aim to encourage nations to increase their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and amplify climate ambition over time.
Technical findings of the first Global Stocktake
Although actions taken to date under the Paris Agreement have significantly reduced forecasts for future warming, the failure of developed countries to deliver on pre-2020 commitments has led to significant gaps in both climate action commitments and implementation to 2030 that must be swiftly addressed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels [2]. The UNFCCC’s technical dialogue on the first GST emphatically calls for governments and organisations to raise their ambition for climate commitments and rapidly accelerate implementation over the next decade [3].
The world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise climate ambition and implement existing commitments.
Current modelling forecasts an emissions gap of 20.3-23.9 gigatonnes of CO2-e in 2030 [3, 4]. This means that the 2030 emissions levels implied by current NDCs are significantly higher than what is required to limit warming to 1.5 °C and that 20.3-23.9 gigatonnes of CO2-e of necessary climate change mitigation measures are currently unaccounted for in global climate commitments.
Additionally, there are significant implementation gaps between emissions targets set in NDCs and practical emissions reductions that have and are on track to be delivered by currently enacted policies. This suggests that global emissions in 2030 will likely exceed what is implied in current NDCs. Unless global mitigation policies are strengthened, the IPCC projects global warming will reach 2.2-3.5°C by 2100 [3, 4].
To limit warming to 1.5 °C, IPCC AR6 modelling has highlighted that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 [4]. While emissions have peaked in developed and some developing countries, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with a new record of 57.4 gigatonnes of CO2-e reached in 2022 [5].
Global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% compared to 2019 levels by 2030, 60% by 2035, and achieve net zero by 2050 for any hope of realising a 1.5 °C future [3]. To achieve this, countries must significantly raise the bar in setting NDC targets and urgently implement domestic mitigation measures.
All countries must adopt a whole-of-society approach to charting pathways to net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
The UNFCCC’s technical report calls for governments to enable systems transformations that mainstream low greenhouse gas emissions development and climate resilience through integrated, inclusive and holistic policymaking. Governments and organisations can strengthen their ambition and support for climate action through credible, accountable and transparent mitigation and adaptation initiatives that focus on equity, inclusion – particularly of stakeholders and groups that are often marginalised, including women, youth and Indigenous Peoples – and just transitions [3].
The UNFCCC has reiterated the need for governments and organisations to realise existing and emerging opportunities across contexts, sectors and systems and deploy a rigorous “all of economy, all of society” approach to decarbonisation that includes:
Scaling up renewable energy: The scale-up of renewable energy infrastructure is the most important lever for climate mitigation, with the GST estimating that energy system measures could account for up to 74% of total global mitigation required to reach net zero [3, 6]. Modelling by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that in order to achieve the 2030 emissions reduction necessary for the 1.5 °C pathway, global installed renewable energy capacity must triple by the end of the decade [6].
Phasing out all unabated fossil fuels: G20 countries accounted for 73% of fossil fuel production* in 2022, with many countries, including Australia, Canada, the UK and the USA, expanding fossil fuel exploration and production activities throughout the past 12 months [5]. The Production Gap Report 2023 calls out material discrepancies between governments’ climate commitments and investments in fossil fuels, highlighting that current investment trajectories still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C [7]. As a minimum, IPCC modelling shows that the use of unabated coal generation must be reduced by 67-82% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to limit global warming to 1.5 °C [4], with use of unabated fossil fuel generation needing to fall by 95% by 2040 (including 100% phase-out of coal generation) under the IEA’s NZE Scenario**[8].
Ending deforestation: Land-use change and deforestation accounted for approximately 11% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, primarily driven by large-scale commodity production [3]. Achieving net zero will not be possible without curbing deforestation and protecting natural terrestrial and ocean-based carbon sinks, with forests and ecosystems already representing approximately 10% of global finance needs for climate adaptation [9]. The UNFCCC has emphasised the need to achieve zero net deforestation by 2030 and widespread efforts to conserve and restore land carbon stocks, protect natural ecosystems, enhance sustainable land management practices, and shift agricultural and food systems [3].
Implementing both supply- and demand-side measures: Supply-side measures alone will not be sufficient to achieve the necessary emissions reductions across economic sectors. Governments and organisations will need to adopt investment strategies that prioritise low-emissions, sustainable infrastructure, technologies and consumer demand models to stimulate the behaviour changes needed to enable and catalyse global decarbonisation [5]. Global mitigation activities in key sectors, including industry, transport, buildings, and agriculture, must create and leverage opportunities for demand management, significantly increasing energy efficiency gains, electrification, innovation in hard-to-abate subsectors, greater circularity, and attention to emissions across supply chains [3].
There is a global need to strategically shift and deploy international public finance to support climate action in developing countries.
The GST technical findings emphasise the need for widespread, systematic and rapid redirection of global finance flows to meet investment needs for low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development. There is consensus across all climate finance aggregators and reports that developed countries’ 2009 pledge to deploy US$100 billion per year by 2020 to support climate change mitigation and adaptation in poorer nations has not been met [2, 1]***. Estimates show the real value of financial support specifically aimed at climate action was between US$21-24.5 billion, not the US$83.3 billion officially reported [2]. Specifically, there is an urgent need for climate finance providers to make financial flows easily accessible to stakeholders in developing nations to have tangible impacts and effectively meet local needs [9, 2]. COP28 discussions on climate finance will recognise the importance of bilateral and multilateral initiatives and partnerships as part of international cooperation [9].
Numerous other concerns have been raised by attending parties [2]:
Due to the lack of a multilaterally agreed definition of climate finance, it has not been possible to consistently track and report progress on climate finance delivery to date.
Additionally, there are serious concerns for the transparency of financial resources that developed countries have provided and mobilised, including double counting and labelling.
The bottom line
As parties attending COP28 negotiate official responses to the outcomes of the GST, one message remains clear: there is no room for Business-As-Usual. The world is at a critical juncture on the path to net zero, and the commitments that governments and organisations make – or do not make – now will have a profound and likely irreversible impact on the future of global climate.
How can your organisation deliver meaningful outcomes for climate change? Message or email us to find out more.
Notes
* On an energy basis.
** The NZE Scenario pathway achieves net zero CO2 emissions from the energy sector by 2050, leading to limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C limit set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, but the increase in global average temperature falls below 1.5 °C by 2100.
*** The US$100 billion goal is instead expected to be delivered in 2023.
References
[1] C. Early and V. Monaco, “The Global Stocktake at COP28,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 13, pp. 1146-1147, November 2023.
[2] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Views on the elements for the consideration of outputs component of the first global stocktake - Synthesis report by the secretariat,” 2023.
[3] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “Technical dialogue of the first global stocktake: Synthesis report by the co-facilitators on the technical dialogue,” 2023.
[4] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, “AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023,” 2023.
[5] United Nations Environment Programme, “Emissions Gap Report 2023: Broken Record – Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again),” Nairobi, 2023.
[6] L. Cozzi, P. Frankl, B. Wanner, H. Bahar and T. Spencer, “Tripling renewable power capacity by 2030 is vital to keep the 1.5°C goal within reach,” International Energy Agency, 21 July 2023.
[7] Stockholm Environment Institute; Climate Analytics; E3G; International Institute for Sustainable Development; United Nations Environment Programme, “The Production Gap 2023: Phasing down or phasing up? Top fossil fuel producers plan even more extraction despite climate promises,” Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2023.
For More information, get in contact with us today
View Related
